台灣的家戶推計
Household Projections for Taiwan
作者:楊靜利(Ching-Li Yang)、曾毅(Yi Zeng) | 首次發表於 2020-07-15 | 第 24 期 December 2000
DOI:https://dx.doi.org/10.6786/TJS.200012.0239
論文資訊 | Article information
摘要 Abstract
本文使用會毅等人所建立的多維家戶推計模型,以1990年人口普查資料爲基礎人口,進行台灣地區的家戶組成推計。推計的家戶頭型分爲一代家戶、兩代家戶及三代家戶三大類,三大類再分出十二小類。考慮的變項包括年齡、性別、婚姻狀況、與父母同居型態、生育子女數、與子女同居型態等。研究結果顯示未來一代家戶將大幅上漲,其中大部份爲老年家戶,在中推計的條件下,2050年時獨居老人家戶占總家戶數的17%獨居老人及僅與配偶同居老人家戶古總家戶數的29%。

關鍵字:家戶組成、家戶推計、宏觀模擬、兩性模型 
>Using a mutli-dimentional household projection model developed by Zeng et al. (1997), this paper presents the results of projecting the number and composition of family households in Taiwan up to the year 2050. It is found that due to the under-replacement fertility since the early 1980's, single generation households will be dramatically increasing on and after 2015 while the increase of elderly households contribute substantially to the growth of this category. In 2050, more than 17% of the elderly will be living alone under moderate assumptions. This entails some grave conditions for the implementation and operation of a national pension program, and the long-term care programs.

Keywords: Household compositions, Household projection, Macro-simulation, Two-sex Model