引用
台灣的家戶組成變遷：1990-2050
Taiwanese Household Projection Scenarios, 1990-2050
作者：楊靜利（Ching-Li Yang）、董宜禎（Yi-Jhen Dong） | 首次發表於 2020-06-30 | 第 38 期 June 2007
DOI：https://dx.doi.org/10.6786/TJS.200706_(38).0004
研究紀要（Research Notes）
DOI：https://dx.doi.org/10.6786/TJS.200706_(38).0004
研究紀要（Research Notes）
論文資訊 | Article information
摘要 Abstract
本文以1990年的台閩地區人口普查資料爲基礎，使用九○年代的登記與調查資料估計標準年齡組成，並設定未來的總體參數，以多維家戶推計模型推估台灣至2050年的家庭結構變遷，同時以2000年的戶籍與普查資料比對推計結果，以評估此一推計程序的有效性。在2000年的結果比較方面，由於基礎年釋出資料的限制，使得推計的人口數量與2000年的戶籍登記資料有一些差距，但誤差率在1%以內，準確率相當不錯；家戶組成則是推計所獲得的結果可能較2000年的普查結果值得信賴。人口與家戶組成變遷方面，不論哪一種推計，均指出生育率長期下跌使得三代家庭的比率將先增後減，未來主要的家戶型態仍爲核心家庭，只是屆時的核心家庭內容與今日的核心家庭大不相同，一半是由老人所組成的一代家庭。在中推計假設條件下，2050年時65歲以上老人占全部人口比例爲38.83%，依賴比爲74.14%，獨居老人占全部老年人的15%。另外，由於離婚率逐漸攀升，單親家庭的比例將愈來愈高，特別是女性離婚後的再婚率較低，使得女性單親家庭的成長更爲明顯。
關鍵字：家戶組成、多維家戶推計模型、基礎人口、標準年齡組成、總體參數
關鍵字：家戶組成、多維家戶推計模型、基礎人口、標準年齡組成、總體參數
The authors use a multi-dimensional household projection model to project the number and composition of family households in Taiwan to the year 2050 to explore the impacts of population change and intergenerational co-residency on household composition. We also make comparisons between the results of the country's 2000 projection effort and registration/census to evaluate the model’s accuracy. Due to the projected numbers are more close to the registered total population in 2000 and the surveyed household composition in 2002, this projection maybe more reliable than the 2000 census. Three scenarios of long-term household projection are offered to demonstrate population and household trends. Our findings indicate that due to a sub-replacement fertility rate since the early 1980s, single generation households will dramatically increase starting 2020, with increases in elderly households making substantial contributions to growth in this category regardless of scenario. It holds important implications for implementing and operating a national pension and other long-term care programs. At the same time, the number of single-parent households will increase sharply due to the growing divorce rate, especially since the probability of divorced Taiwanese women remarrying is much lower than that for men.
Keywords: household composition, multi-dimensional household projection model, base population, standard schedules, summary measures
Keywords: household composition, multi-dimensional household projection model, base population, standard schedules, summary measures
