引用
台灣地區家戶組成之推計
A Projection of Household Composition in Taiwan
作者:王德睦(Te-Mu Wang)、陳寬政(Kuan-Jeng Chen) | 首次發表於 2020-07-29 | 第 19 期 March 1996
DOI:https://dx.doi.org/10.6786/TJS.199603.0009
DOI:https://dx.doi.org/10.6786/TJS.199603.0009
論文資訊 | Article information
摘要 Abstract
使用總體模擬與人口的組成推計法,本文就人口變遷檢討家戶組成的動態,指出台灣地區於日據期間的死亡率下降使得一般夫妻所擁有的存活子女人數大增,以致於核心家戶的比例於1985年以前持續上漲;光復後生育率下降卻又使得存活子女人數減少,在父母子女同居意願不變的條件下,造成1985年以後核心家戶的比例持續下降的趨向。然而台灣地區的生育率已下降到替換水準以下,迨至低於替換水準生育條件下出生的人口於2010年以後大量步入婚育年齡時,由於當時許多老年夫妻已無足夠的成年子女數量可供選擇同居,核心家戶的比例乃將再度上升。本文同時指出,在高、中、低三組人口推計中,中推計的人口設定略低於替換水準的生育率,減少了因父母已經雙亡或是已經與其他子女同居的家戶仿全體家戶的比例,乃產生最低的核心家戶比例,並同時產生了不同於高、低推計的變化趨勢,核心家戶比例於2040年以後逐漸下降。我們的家戶推計指出人口變遷的客觀情勢已不利於傳統家庭「養吾老以及人之老」的功能,而晚近幾年父母子女同居的主觀意願也似漸發展為不利於老年父母與成年子女同居就養,則籌劃老年生活照護制度如年金給付、醫藥保險與慢性殘疾之長期療養等,已到了應有完整妥善規劃的時刻。
關鍵字:家戶組成、推計、同居意願、父母(子女)同居的可能性
關鍵字:家戶組成、推計、同居意願、父母(子女)同居的可能性
Base on Chen, Tu and Lin’s (1989) macro-simulation model measuring the impacts of population change on household composition in Taiwan, this paper aims at developing a model for projecting the household composition in Taiwan to the next few decades. Our results show that no matter what will happen to the future fertility level, if the stem household is to remain the preferred living arrangement for the parents, we can expect a substantial increase in the prevalence of stem household during the next 20 years due to the fact that fertility has declined substantially during the past several decades. Then at the turning point when the under-replaced generation grows up to the adulthood, a resurgence of the nuclear househood is to be expected. It is also found that independent of the population change, the propensity for co-residence can produce a large proportional effect on the household composition.
Keywords: Household composition, Projection, Propensity for coresidence, Availability of parents/children
Keywords: Household composition, Projection, Propensity for coresidence, Availability of parents/children
- 關鍵詞:
- 家戶組成
- 推計
- 同居意願
- 父母(子女)同居的可能性